The Signal Report
A short Monday edition. The through-line: Friday's scare meets a quiet weekend. History says the fear usually fades on Monday, but the Gulf did not calm down, and oil is the thing to watch.
Ships are still being hit near Hormuz, and Iran is warning of more
What happened, plainly: Over the weekend, the UK's maritime security office reported attacks on vessels near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a tug off the UAE was hit by two projectiles Fact. Gulf News counts at least ten ships struck around Hormuz since Sunday, the most since the war began Fact · reported; counts vary by outlet. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Iran has a "new operational plan" if the US or Israel attacks again, and that it would not follow "rules with which they are familiar" Fact.
Brent crude settled Friday at about $109.86, up 3.7%, and was near $109 on Sunday Fact · reported.
The read: Inference crude flows through Hormuz had recovered to near prewar levels by early October (reported here on 4 October). That recovery is now at risk again. Reuters reports two senior Iranian officials saying Iran is using new tactics to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterms. If that is the plan, it works against exactly what the White House did on Friday, when it waived its own Russia sanctions to bring fuel prices down. Higher oil feeds the next inflation numbers, which keeps the Fed's December hike in play.
Friday's fear spike, and what usually happens next
On Friday the VIX fear gauge closed at 19.99, up 21.5%, its biggest one-day rise since 5 June Fact. CoinDesk looked at every Friday since 1990 when the VIX jumped 20% or more: in 25 of 32 cases it fell the next Monday, typically by about 4.5%, and a month later it was lower in 25 of 32 Fact, coindesk's count. Some traders are betting the other way, buying options that pay if the VIX closes above 23 in mid-November.
Bitcoin held above $80,000 all weekend, near $82,000 Fact, and its own volatility gauge barely moved.
The read: the history favours a calmer Monday, and Bitcoin's quiet weekend agrees. But the 7 out of 32 times it didn't calm down matter, and this week has a live reason to be different: the oil and Gulf story above, plus big-tech earnings about to arrive. I would not lean on the base rate this week. Inference
Stablecoins: supply has stopped growing, but use is up 45%
New data from Allium: stablecoin payments reached $482 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 45% on a year earlier, and the number of payments rose 71% to over 1 billion Fact. But total stablecoins in circulation are about $305 billion, up just 0.4% this year. The same money is being used more often, not more money being created. Stablecoin card spending rose about tenfold to $3.9 billion, mostly purchases under $50.
Also: the joint tokenised-stock venue from OKX and ICE (owner of the New York Stock Exchange) plans to trade 63 US stocks around the clock, and nine companies, including Broadcom and Verizon, have objected to their shares being listed Fact. Nasdaq says it will opt out for its own shares.
The read: card networks (Visa, Mastercard, Stripe) are folding stablecoins into ordinary payments, which is real use, but it is still tiny: card spending in Q2 was 0.03% of Visa's volume. And the pushback from big companies on tokenised stocks shows they do not want their shares traded where they have no say. That is a real obstacle for "everything on-chain" stories. Inference
- Anthropic has committed 5% of its shares to a new public benefit fund aimed at AI-driven job disruption (as reported by CNBC; details not yet confirmed elsewhere).
- Q3 crypto hacks cost $1.18 billion, per auditor Hacken, which says audits give investors a false sense of security. Cysic's bridge was halted after an attacker minted tokens and moved about $727,000.
- Crypto.com and Novig sued Missouri over sports event contracts; Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood held off.
- Latvia plans to accept crypto for tax payments from 2027.
- ISO 20022 standing watch: no change to the token basket. Visa's stablecoin prefunding (USDC) is in commercial use for cross-border payouts; that is stablecoin settlement, not a basket token. Baseline holds (8 tokens).
- Monday's open. Does the VIX fall back under 18, as history suggests, or push past 20?
- Brent at $110. A clean break above Friday's high would be its highest since May.
- Big-tech earnings. How AI spending is being paid for is the question after last week's debt scare.
- Chip stocks after eight straight down days.
- Bitcoin at $80,000. Still holding; a weekend that stayed calm is a small positive.
A quiet weekend after a rough Friday. History says a big Friday jump in the VIX fear gauge usually reverses on Monday, and Bitcoin held calmly above $80,000 all weekend. But the Gulf did not calm down: around ten ships were reported hit near Hormuz, Iran warned of a "new operational plan" if attacked again, and Brent crude is near $109. That keeps fuel prices, inflation and the Fed's December decision tied together. In crypto, stablecoins are being used 45% more for payments this year even though the total supply has barely grown, and big companies including Broadcom and Verizon are refusing to have their shares traded as tokens. Watch the Monday open, oil at $110, and big-tech earnings.